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Jubilant Organosys
Reco price: Rs 169.00
Current market price: Rs 162.30
Target price: Rs 212.00
Downside: 30.6%
Brokerage: India Infoline

Jubilant is increasing focus on regulated markets of US, EU and Japan, which currently contributes about 65 per cent of its Pharma and Life-science revenues and have registered 70 per cent CAGR over the last five years. Jubilant expects the proprietary products business to register 38 per cent CAGR over the next five years, and API/generics business to register 25 per cent CAGR over a four year period.

Jubilant’s consolidated debt as on 31 May 2009 was Rs 3,480 crore, including FCCBs of Rs 900 crore. Of the FCCBs, Rs 234 crore is due for repayment in May 2010 and balance in May 2011. The management said it can repay the first tranche entirely from internal accruals, and the second one partly from internal accruals and partly through refinancing.

The company may also divest its polymer business, which would help reduce debt levels. Jubilant reiterated its 2009-10 guidance—revenue growth of 15 per cent and EBITDA growth of 30 per cent. Jubilant’s valuations are attractive and the easing of credit markets and cash conservation policies adopted by the company (scaling down of capex) has alleviated the risk of default on debt. Maintain Buy.

ICICI Bank
Reco price: Rs 733.00
Current market price: Rs 703.85
Target price: Rs 781.00
Downside: 11.0%
Brokerage: Sharekhan

ICICI Bank’s loan book growth has decelerated sharply in the last three years with 2008-09 marking the first instance of contraction. This is on account of the slowdown in the high-yielding retail segment, which is due to the weakening demand and the bank’s aim to re-balance the loan portfolio.

While the momentum in low-cost CASA growth did not happen in 2008-09, a major part of the liabilities should get repriced at lower rates and help improve margins. The downsizing of its work force by 15 per cent and reduced reliance on direct marketing agents during 2008-09, coul lead to an improvement in productivity.

While the emergence of green shoots at the macro level is encouraging from the asset quality perspective, ICICI Bank is likely to face tough challenges in managing its credit quality.

Positively, there was a significant decline in the off balance sheet items due to a reduction in the bank’s exposure towards interest rate swaps, currency futures and interest rate futures. There has been a marked change in the management’s stance on growth post elections—from a largely flattish growth to an expansion of 15-20 per cent in the balance sheet led by housing, corporate and car loan segments.

At Rs 733, the stock trades at 1.5x its book value based on 2010-11 estimates. While maintaining its earnings estimates, Sharekhan has revised the price target to Rs 781 and maintains Hold

GUJARAT NRE COKE
RESEARCH: MACQUARIE
RATING: OUTPERFORM
CMP: RS 45
Macquarie maintains `Outperform’ rating on Gujarat NRE Coke (GNC) and increases the target price to Rs 87. Macquarie global team has raised its coking coal price forecast by 17% for FY11, buoyed by China turning a net importer of coking coal and a possible restart of steel capacity globally. The recent settlement of coking coal at $129/t was surprisingly strong, as the expectation was for around $100-110. More so, the remainder of coking coal quantities left from last year’s contract at $300 has not been waived off. GNC owns two coking coal mines in Australia, with 580-million tonne reserves and a current mine coal production of 1 million tonnes. GNC has augmented its coke capacity by 25% to 1.25 million tonnes. GNC remains the best stock in which to invest to take advantage of the upturn in the coking coal cycle. GNC has good quality reserves, an excellent location and is well on its way to become one of the world’s top-ten producers of prime hard coking coal in the next three years.

INDIAN HOTELS
RESEARCH: CITIGROUP
RATING: SELL
CMP: RS 65
Citigroup has downgraded Indian Hotels to `Sell’ with a target price of Rs 62 on a higher multiple of 14x (vs.10x) at five-year trough valuations and 20% discount to Sensex on higher flows and a preference for asset plays. With continued fall in occupancy and average room rents in Q1, Citigroup sees growing risks for the domestic business; with little visibility on recovery of overseas losses, very weak 4Q and the stock’s 23% outperformance over the last 3 months. Consolidated PAT was down 84% y-o-y due to mounting losses from international properties and higher staff/overhead costs (largely one-offs) even as it recognized a Rs 85.5 crore insurance claim and forex translation losses of Rs 46.5 crore. However, Citigroup expects some occupancy pick-up in 2H and the reopening of ‘The Pierre’ in August ‘09 to lower losses; but expects muted ARR (average room rent) and high debt to increase pressures. We revise our estimates slightly for FY10-11. While Indian Hotels is Citigroup’s best hotel play, with revenue per available room across 10 key cities down an average. 42% in April ‘09 (vs a 35% fall in March ‘09), it expects dismal earnings over the next two quarters to weigh on stock performance.

MARICO
RESEARCH: BNP PARIBAS
RATING: BUY
CMP: RS 72
BNP Paribas raises the 12-month price target of Marico to Rs 89, based on 20x FY11 EPS. The meeting with Marico’s management confirmed that the core Parachute coconut oil has remained immune in the current slowdown, and the company has not had to cut prices, despite fall in copra prices. Growth in Saffola is back on track following price cuts to partially pass on the input cost benefit. BNP Paribas expects a 20.3% y-o-y growth in FY10 driven by a 10% domestic volume growth and margin expansion on lower input costs. Kaya clinics, which have now attained critical mass, will add zing to earnings growth. The fall in input costs combined with relatively stable endproduct pricing gives us confidence that Marico will gain back at least 200 bps (basis points) out of the 300 bps it lost in FY09 (excluding Kaya) on the raw materials line. Even if the company increases its advertising spend to 12% of revenue to support new products, we are confident of a 70-bp EBITDA margin expansion in FY10. An additional 100-bp margin expansion can provide a 10.6% upside to the FY10 EPS estimate

1) INDIAN OIL CORPORATION
RESEARCH: ABN AMRO BANK RATING: SELL CMP: RS 556
ABN Amro Bank downgraded Indian Oil Corporation from ‘Hold’ to ‘Sell’ with a target price of Rs 490. IOC reported Q4FY09 net profit of Rs 6,620 crore, turning 9MFY09 losses of Rs 3,670 crore into full-year profit of Rs 2,950 crore. This was largely a result of the contribution from government bonds of Rs 40,370 crore and upstream sharing of Rs 18,200 crore in the full year. ABN Amro estimates prices of kerosene, LPG, petrol and diesel will need to rise 140%, 42%, 11% and 3% respectively, or crude price will need to fall below $54/bbl, to ensure no gross under-recovery. It expects refining margins to remain low. To maintain adequate profitability, the government, like in FY09, will ensure IOC has no net under-recoveries by contributing in the form of oil bonds and upstream sharing. As long as gross under-recoveries exist and earnings depend on government policy, IOC’s core business should trade at a discount to book value. At the target price, the core business would trade at 0.9x FY10 price to book value, while IOC’s holding in ONGC/Gail is worth Rs137/share.

2) FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES
RESEARCH: IDFC RATING: OUTPERFORMER CMP: RS 1352
IDFC-SSKI initiates coverage on Financial Technologies (FTIL) with `Outperformer’ rating and target price of Rs 2,000. Vision, execution and ability to reinvest capital have prompted the evolution of Financial Technologies from India’s leading exchange solutions provider to Asia’s largest exchange conglomerate. The ‘only’ gateway to the potential $10-trillion Indian exchanges space, FTIL has captured 87% of the commodity markets through MCX and given taut competition to equity incumbent NSE in currencies through MCX-SX. Besides pioneering niche models in power and spot, five international exchanges have been set up in potentially under-penetrated regions.

3) BIOCON
RESEARCH: DEUTSCHE BANK RATING: SELL CMP: RS 214
Deutsche Bank maintains Biocon’s estimates and target price of Rs 135, however, it downgrades the rating to `Sell’. Biocon has a poor track record - lacklustre revenue, falling margins and PAT (6%). This is aggravated by increasing working capital and large capex, resulting in higher gearing and low ROCEs. Thus, it has the lowest asset turn and ROCEs amongst peers. Axicorp’s acquisition will add value only in the medium to long term. Biocon expects to supply mycophenolate and tacrolimus in US for generic launch. Generics are not able to snatch significant market share immediately on patent expiry in immunosuppressants. Moreover, there is a large number of API fillings for both. Also, the patent holder has been able to delay generic companies for tacrolimus for over a year. And there is a possibility of a rebound in licensing fees for Biocon.

4) ONGC
RESEARCH: MERRILL LYNCH
RATING: BUY
CMP: RS 1127
Merrill Lynch retains its `Buy’ rating on ONGC with a target price of Rs 1,261. Since the May 16 election results, there is expectation that auto fuel pricing may be freed up to oil price of $75/bbl. Current auto fuel prices reflect $55/bbl of Brent price. Auto fuel pricing freedom up to $75/bbl of Brent price implies a over 20% hike in diesel and gasoline prices. Merrill Lynch, therefore, assumes 8-10% diesel and gasoline price hike, which has boosted the target price by Rs 111/share. Earlier, auto fuel subsidy hit of Rs 1,400 crore in FY10E and Rs 5,700 crore in FY11E was assumed. Assuming a 8-10% price hike in diesel and gasoline has meant no auto fuel subsidy for ONGC up to Brent price of $62/bbl. Thus, now no auto fuel subsidy is assumed in FY10-FY11E, which has boosted FY10- FY11E EPS by 5-18%. FY12E EPS is also boosted 15% due to lower auto fuel subsidy.

5) BATA INDIA
RESEARCH: STANDARD CHARTERED BANK
RATING: BUY
CMP: RS 161
Standard Chartered Bank initiates coverage on Bata India with `Buy’ rating and a target price at Rs 202. Bata is planning to aggressively expand its retail network of 1,200 stores by 60 stores annually for the next three years. With restructuring of its retail network over the past couple of years, Bata is on a strong wicket to successfully achieve its expansion plans. During 2004-08, Bata’s revenue compounded 9% annually and EBITDA expanded by 1,600 bps to 9%. During the same period, its debt on balance sheet dropped to Rs 44.6 crore from Rs 122.1 crore . Bata is very well-placed to carry out its expansion plans with improved revenue and profitability growth rate and virtually a debt-free balance sheet. At this target price of Rs. 202, Bata will quote at a PE of 25.9x and EV/EBITDA of 13.7x 2009E financials. Consistent growth in revenue and PAT of 12% and 15% respectively during 2008-12 may result in re-rating of the stock from the current level. Any disturbance in the cordial relations between the management and their employees and relaxation of retail FDI regulations that may increase competition are the key risks to the call.
CADILA HEALTHCARE
RESEARCH: CITIGROUP
RATING: SELL
CMP: RS 340
Citigroup maintains `Sell’ rating on Cadila Healthcare with a higher target price of Rs 320. It remains concerned over a potential hole in earnings on expiry of Protonix patents and Cadila’s ability to effectively fill the hole. That apart, given the limited differentiation in the company’s biz model, the stock is to continue trading at a discount to its peers. Cadila’s FY09 results had sales and PAT of Rs 99.9 crore and Rs 68.2 crore from the JV with Nycomed. This is likely to be a finite opportunity given the imminent patent expiry of Protonix. The company also has hedging positions worth about $70 million at an average rate of about Rs45.5/$ and forex debt of about $140 million on its books which provides some cushion against rupee appreciation in the short term. Things to watch out for: (1) Scale up of the Hospira JV: Cadila has guided to three product launches in FY10 and six launches in FY11, and indicated that this could make up for the patent expiry of Protonix; (2) Domestic formulations growth trend: FY09 growth was lacklustre at 9% y-oy. Given that this accounts for about 43% of Cadila’s sales, it would be difficult for Cadila to achieve its guidance of $1bn sales by FY11, without a dramatic pick up in growth.

6) MPHASIS
RESEARCH: HSBC
RATING: OVERWEIGHT
CMP: RS 354
HSBC initiates coverage on MphasiS with an `Overweight’ rating and a target price of Rs 430, valuing the stock at an about 25% discount to its largecap peers, in line with the historic range. A mid-tier Indian IT services company of which Hewlett-Packard owns 61%, MphasiS’ top-line growth has outperformed peers over the last few quarters due to strong traction in its HP/EDS accounts. HSBC finds further scope for inroads in the HP/EDS accounts, as HP’s cost-saving targets warrant further offshoring of about 10-12K employees by end-FY10. With EDS’ focus on large deals and a high proportion of ‘offshorable’ services, there is potential to offshore 60% of commercial outsourcing work. HSBC estimates 2% top-line growth here, which could expand MphasiS’ top line by about 16% in FY10E. HSBC forecasts growth in cost of goods sold to be in line with headcount growth and factors in only a modest decline in pricing, as a large proportion of revenue is offshore, where pricing is already at a 15-20% discount to sector leaders.

India Infoline has recommended high risk traders to buy HDFC for target of Rs 2480.

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